Agenda item

To scrutinise the budgetary position (revenue and capital) for services falling within the committee's remit, including an early update on 2025/26.

Cabinet Member Ben Callard introduced the report and answered the members’ questions with Jonathan Davies, Peter Davies, Matt Gatehouse, Debra Hill-Howells, Nicola Wellington.

• How will the council mitigate the long-term structural risk from the persistent overspend in social care and housing?

The council is working on reablement and managing demand pathways to improve quality of life and reduce local authority burden. There is recognition that savings targets in social care have not always been fully met due to increased demand and complexity, as well as inflation. The council continues to work on these challenges, acknowledging statutory responsibilities and external factors affecting demand.

• Significant capital slippage is reported. What measures are we using to mitigate this?

Capital slippage is mainly due to late grant notifications and some planning issues. The council is working with budget holders and external contractors to improve planning and delivery, but recognises that capital schemes are multi-year and subject to change.

• What assurance/mitigation can be given to the risk of relying heavily on one-off grants?

Reliance on grant funding is significant, but late notifications make planning difficult. The council would benefit from earlier and more certain grant information to plan and use funds more effectively. There is ongoing dialogue with Welsh Government about moving some grant funding into core revenue funding. There is generally constructive dialogue with Welsh Government about grant design and funding, but uncertainty remains about future budget approaches. The council is working to ensure its interests are protected, especially regarding recurrent grants that underwrite core costs.

• Is the real cost of social care underrepresented in our budget?

The council has learned from past ambitious reform targets in social care, which led to overspends when savings were not fully realised. Recent years have seen some improvement, with early indications that forecast overspends are lessening, reflecting progress in reform and budget management.

• What is the impact of increased National Insurance costs on the council's budget, including schools, and what mitigation is in place?

The increased National Insurance is a cost pressure. Some additional funding was provided but did not cover the full liability. A contingency fund was set in last year's budget to mitigate this risk.

• What is being done about council tax arrears and debt recovery, given the lack of movement in outstanding arrears?

There are various reasons for arrears, not all due to refusal to pay (e.g., probate cases). Council tax arrears and social care debt have increased post-pandemic, reflecting national trends. The council uses the Council Tax Reduction Scheme to support those in need and is focusing on recovery efforts. There has also been an increase in discounts and exemptions, moving towards the Welsh average. The shared service team works to support taxpayers and ensure robust recovery measures. The council maintains a high long-term collection rate (over 99%), though delays in probate have affected in-year rates. Welsh Government is reviewing advice and legislation to support appropriate enforcement and support for those in challenging circumstances.

• Should probate issues significantly influence Council tax arrears, given that probate is a constant factor? Are the main factors affecting arrears more likely related to the ability to pay, or avoidance of payment?

Delays in probate over recent years have impacted collection rates, making it take longer to collect payments than previously. This has affected in-year collection rates. The duration for probate has increased from three to six months to more like twelve to twenty-four months in many cases, which has contributed to the delays in collection.

• Can you provide a breakdown of where staff vacancies have been held the longest across the Council, how long these posts have remained unfilled, whether each vacancy is still essential, and what is being done to address risks to service continuity? How sustainable is the current use of vacancy freezes, and what are the implications for service quality, staff morale, and organisational capacity going forward?

• Specific data on which directorates have the most vacancies is not available during the meeting, but it is likely proportional to directorate size (e.g., more in health and social care). The council has raised the threshold for recruitment, requiring higher-level management review to determine if vacancies should be filled. – ACTION: to secure the data and share with the committee The intention is not to keep vacancies permanent; if a role is no longer needed, the structure should be changed. If the intention is to re-recruit when conditions allow, vacancies are held temporarily. Each vacancy is assessed against criteria set by the strategic leadership team, including health and safety and risk to service users. Directorates review vacancies, and all recruitment is signed off by senior management. The process aims to avoid unnecessary harm or risk to communities and encourages creative solutions for service delivery.

• How does the increased threshold for recruiting affect the delivery of frontline services? How is the balance maintained between financial constraints and the need to deliver essential services?

Directors within their services are best positioned to judge the impact of holding vacancies on frontline services. There is a need to balance minimal impact on services while achieving budget recovery. Criteria were set at the strategic leadership team level to assess vacancies, including health and safety risks and the well-being of individuals. Each directorate management team considers these criteria before vacancies are signed off by senior management, ensuring that essential services are not unduly affected.

• The passenger transport overspend of £555,000 – does this relate to regular bus services or home-to-school transport, and what can be done to mitigate these costs?

The overspend relates to home-to-school transport, not public buses. Costs have risen due to increased numbers of learners and higher operator costs. Contract handbacks require rapid retendering or in-house coverage. Routes and vehicle sizes are continually reviewed to manage variations and new learners.

• Regarding school deficits, how is the council working with schools to find savings, especially around supply teaching, and are there efforts to reduce reliance on agencies?

Schools in deficit must produce recovery plans, which are monitored and supported by finance, HR, and school improvement teams. Schools are encouraged to employ staff directly for long-term cover (e.g., maternity leave) rather than use agencies. There is a Welsh Government agency staff framework, and schools have requested the council explore alternative supply staff models, such as a council-run pool.

• 15 schools are in deficit and the overall deficit has grown from around £1 million to just over £4 million. Are the recovery plans for these schools pushing towards an improved situation this year?

When a school goes into deficit, they are required to create a recovery plan. Several schools are already in the second year of their recovery plans and are making progress. She noted that the timing of staff changes, which typically start in September, means that the first year only sees seven months of savings. Therefore, while the situation may initially worsen, improvements are expected over time as the full impact of the recovery plans is realised.

• Is supply teaching still a cost pressure, and can we employ teachers directly rather than through agencies?

Schools are encouraged to employ staff directly for long-term vacancies, such as maternity leave, to ensure consistency and reduce costs. There has been a recent audit around supply staff, and schools have asked the council to look at alternative ways of providing supply staff, such as creating a pool of supply staff employed by the council. This would help to reduce reliance on agencies and potentially lower costs.

• How does the council decide the need for a position versus holding a vacancy? Has a process mapping exercise been done for all services to determine the right resource levels, and are the results available?

The Council has a clear set of criteria for evaluating vacancies, which includes considering health and safety risks and the well-being of individuals. Each vacancy is reviewed by directorate management teams and signed off by senior officers. While there isn't a central process mapping exercise for all services, regular reviews and evaluations are conducted at the service level to ensure the workforce is right-sized. Restructures and changes are made as needed to optimize service delivery.

Chair’s Summary:

The committee agreed the recommendations and the report was moved.