Minutes:
The two stages of education to discuss are Key Stage 5 (pupils leaving school at age 18, having typically completed A Levels and BTEC qualifications) and Key Stage 4 (the end of statutory education.) The first thing to cover is the decisions taken across the EAS region (EAS are our partners in school improvement, working closely with our schools and as part of the national picture.) The way that we use performance data has changed significantly: the days of publishing on the day how each school has fared, the pass rates, etc. have largely left us. This is for good reason, as they led to behaviours that weren’t positive, with schools taking decisions about how they entered children for certain qualifications, and the way that they taught children. Now, exam results are a key part of how we work with schools, but are used in a more nuanced and sensitive way.
Throughout May and June, Quals Wales (the independent regulator in Wales) undertook a consultation with stakeholders about how it would standardise exam results in Wales this summer. Concerns were raised about that the process, but we worked through it with Quals Wales, and Welsh Government were obviously involved too. The now-famous algorithms were determined as the process by which the grades could be determined. As we got closer to A Level day in particular, there was intensified speculation about how the algorithm would work, and the impact it might have on students. In Wales, there were several discussions and decisions made in a number of days, that affected the way children receive their exam results. The first, for Key Stage 5, was the Minister’s announcement on 12th August that any student would be able to access their AS Level grade if it was better than the algorithm-determined A2 Level grade (at the end of the first year, children sit their AS Level, which makes up 40% of their A Level, and in the second year they sit their A2, which makes up the remainder.) On 13th August, the exam results were published. The schools supported their children, as always, and worked hard to make sense of the announcement the day before, and understand what its impact would be on children’s ability to access their next step. For the majority of students, that next step entailed studying in further education.
However, as you will know, there was a huge outcry across the UK about the impact of the algorithm, its unfairness, and how children in larger schools or colleges in disadvantaged areas seemed to be penalised to a greater extent than those elsewhere. Not all of that is relevant to Wales: here, the argument put forward by the government, examination board and Quals Wales was always that for A2 we had a much better indicator of existing attainment because we already had the AS grade. Following discussions across the UK, Welsh Government took the decision to move to a position whereby centre-assessed grades (CAGs), which were those submitted by schools to the examination bodies representing what they believed a student would reasonably achieve in the summer, could be used as well as the previous year’s AS grade, and as well as the algorithm grade.
We know that this did affect some of our students, including making access to their desired HE course more challenging than we would have hoped. We are working to resolve issues such as these. Key Stage 5 is ordinarily the more straightforward of the exam results, but this year it was more problematic due to the confusion around the grades, and because universities had already responded to the students after the initial publication of results, and then had to look at how to manage their offers after the change in approach. We were in very close contact with our 4 secondary heads to understand what they were doing to ensure their learners could access their desired HE courses. At a subsequent meeting of this committee, we will be able to provide destination data from our schools – I think that will be more telling for this year, rather than thinking about the number of children that achieved certain thresholds.
Regarding Key Stage 4: The Minister’s announcement in the week of 17th August marked out that GCSE students would be awarded the highest of either their centre-assessed grade or the grade determined by the algorithm. The former will determine most significantly the grades for this year’s cohort. We’ve been very clear with our schools that due to the vagaries of the system and processes this year, we won’t be able to use GCSE outcomes for accountability purposes as we have previously. As mentioned earlier, we are trying to move away from a published and public approach, to a more nuanced one. But the changes that have taken place in the summer are so significant that it is very difficult for us to do anything on a school basis. We will be working closely with our schools in the coming weeks to understand what happened in the summer, beyond the headline data, and to ensure that their preparations are in place for next year.
To give a sense of the scale of the change in grades: in 2019, 7% of students accessed an A* grade, in 2020 it was 12.1%. For students accessing A*-A grades, it was 18.4% in 2019 and 25.9% in 2020. A*-C (C being the old ‘Pass’ line) moved from 62.8% in 2019 to 74.5% in 2020. The full pass rate, A*-G, had a much smaller increase, from 97.2% in 2019 to 99.6% in 2020. As the shift is significant, we have to be very careful about how we and the schools use the data. I’m really pleased that the process we went through with the schools during the year gave a good indication of where they were tracking; they have largely been in line with their indicated trajectories. We have been clear as directors throughout Gwent and the EAS region that we want to find a common approach to sharing the data and analyses that we have.
When we bring that information back to this committee we’ll look to understand some of the dynamics around the Cap-9, which is the principal measure at the end of Key Stage 4, made up of 9 qualification slots. 3 of these are determined (literacy measure [the best of either English or Welsh literature or language], the numeracy measure [the best of maths or numeracy], and the science measure [the best grade from a science GCSE]), and the 6 remaining slots can be filled with the best outcomes that the learner achieves. Rather than comparing this year’s cohort to previous ones, we will consider potential differences within this year’s cohort: boys and girls, FSM and non-FSM learners, etc. There are other areas of interest which we will consider, such as subject performance.
As with Key Stage 5, destinations are really important when it comes to Key Stage 4, as many students will decide what they will study at A Level, and/or which institution they will attend (staying put, attending a college, commencing an apprenticeship, etc.) Ensuring that this year the students were well counselled became critical for our schools, which have worked carefully with their students to discuss with and advise them about their best options and opportunities. We are seeing increased numbers of children staying on at our sixth forms, which is very positive, as we want a thriving post-16 environment in Monmouthshire.
Challenge:
Did any students miss out on HE places, due to the three different types of grades?
At the moment, we don’t have figures for how many pupils in Monmouthshire missed out on their first choice. We will try to ascertain that during the Destination analysis. Ordinarily, there are some pupils who don’t receive the grades they were hoping for, in order to go to their first choice university. The UCAS process allows them to choose a second choice, for this eventuality. This year some children accessed clearing, the process by which all of the university places that haven’t been filled as first or second choice offers are made available to the general student population. Students can enter clearing places if their grades were better or worse than expected. We know a certain number of students accessed clearing, which might suggest they missed out on their first choice.
When applying for a university place, do the students have to state which assessment (AS, CAG, Algorithm) was used to calculate their grades?
I don’t believe there was any requirement for the students to disclose the means by which their grades were determined. The examination boards worked through the process and determined themselves what grade should be allocated to each pupil. There were three variables to consider, and the highest grade was taken from among these.
How will we prepare for next year’s results, given the potential for localised lockdowns etc.?
We met as the 22 directors for education last Friday with Welsh Government officials, and this was one of the first questions asked. The important announcement recently has been the independent review into what happened this summer – this will be undertaken by the director of the Open University in Wales. I believe there will be an interim report to the minister in October, with a final report by December. The message from Welsh Government is that there won’t be a rushed decision concerning next year’s examinations. Possible ideas have been mentioned in the press, such as moving the exam dates back, giving pupils the time to make up for that which was lost this year – my understanding is that this isn’t as easy as it might sound. Other suggestions include using centre-assessed grades again but with an increased level of moderation, from either examining bodies or school-based moderation, perhaps involving moderation between schools (which didn’t happen this year).
As the grades have been higher overall, have the courses raised their requirements?
If it was thought that at the outset the algorithm had benefitted some groups more than others, the risk would be that they could gain access to places but the way that the CAGs were used, the whole system had that inflationary pressure, and therefore everyone would have benefitted from it – if, indeed, that pressure existed. So it will be interesting to see what the plans are, and how HE as a sector responds to its plans for next year. The submissions for UCAS are this autumn term, so students will be thinking now about where they are going to apply (pupils have already applied for veterinary and medicine places). The offers from universities will have already been made; pupils therefore already know whether they have been accepted by their institution before they receive their examination results. The universities also receive the results before the schools. Therefore there won’t have been the opportunity to change the offers to children this year but next year they might think about who they offer to and how many places they offer (for popular courses they typically ‘over offer’, knowing that in an ordinary year not every child will achieve their expected results). Therefore, we will have to wait and see what happens over the course of the year.
Chair’s Summary:
Thank you to Mr Mclean for updating the committee on what is a very complicated situation, at both Key Stage 4 and 5. Of course, there’s been so much media interest across the summer, it’s been incredibly difficult. The committee wishes to thank teachers as well for their input and time, particularly GCSE and Sixth Form teachers’ time spent over the results period. The main concern is fairness, especially going forward for next year’s cohort because their teaching has been disrupted, with a significant chunk of teaching lost – and we don’t know what’s going to happen in the coming months leading to the next set of exams. We will undoubtedly return to this topic.